New data from economic research firm John Dunham & Associates reveals an accelerating decline in U.S. toy imports since April 2025, driven by the impact of tariffs on the industry’s supply chain. Prepared for The Toy Association™, these findings are being used in the Association’s ongoing media outreach and advocacy in Washington to share the economic impact of tariff policies on the toy industry.

According to the data, total U.S. toy imports in June 2025 fell by 31 percent compared to June 2024, driven largely by a 47 percent decline in imports from China. May showed a similar trend, with imports down 28 percent overall and Chinese shipments falling 45 percent. The industry has now had two consecutive months of nearly 50 percent year-over-year declines in Chinese toy imports, with no evidence that increased sourcing from other countries is offsetting the loss.

The downward trend began in April 2025, when total toy imports dipped 2 percent and imports from China fell 11 percent year-over-year. The recent declines raise concerns about potential product shortages later in the year if the trend continues.

“The data is clear: Tariffs are creating serious headwinds for the toy industry and are disrupting the flow of toys into the U.S. market ahead of the crucial holiday season,” said Kathrin Belliveau, chief policy officer at The Toy Association. “Tariffs don’t just affect companies; they ultimately impact the choices and prices American families face. Without relief, we risk seeing fewer products on store shelves, higher costs for families, and lasting strain on the businesses that bring play to children.”

The Toy Association is using this research to engage in continuous media outreach to spread awareness about the impact of tariffs on the industry. In recent weeks, the Association’s President & CEO Greg Ahearn has been interviewed by The Washington Post, The Associated Press, Politico, Retail Brew, and other major media outlets to highlight the industry’s challenges and supply chain impact.

The Toy Association will continue to advocate on behalf of the industry for an exemption from tariffs on toys. Members may reach out to Kathrin Belliveau with any questions.